An unsettled world becomes more so | Orion
The article discusses the increased global uncertainty following President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump's COVID-19 diagnoses amid a pandemic and political unrest, emphasizes enduring economic strengths like the rule of law and capital markets, highlights the historical resilience of the U.S. economy and S&P 500 returns since 1945 despite crises, and notes that recent market performance suggests a Trump reelection according to their election countdown calculator.
An unsettled world – a pandemic, a contentious election, a strained political and cultural discourse, unrest in our streets – has become more so with news President Trump and First Lady Melania Trump tested positive for COVID-19. We wish them a very speedy recovery and hope no members of their family or other members of their respective staffs have contracted the virus. We will be monitoring the situation closely and will be speaking to the potential long-term implications of the diagnosis as we learn more. For our thoughts on its potential near-term implications, we direct you to a letter penned Friday by our Chief Investment Officer, Jeff Raupp.
During periods of great uncertainty we come back to those strengths that underpin our economy and - importantly - transcend politics: the rule of law; large and liquid capital markets; a transparent judicial system; favorable demographics; a best in class university system; the dollar as the world’s reserve currency; respect for private property; abundant natural resources and the most capable military on the planet.
To put a finer point on it, consider that since 1945 - across Republican and Democratic administrations, shooting wars and a decades-long Cold War, the impeachment of two presidents and the resignation of another, extraordinary social change, and a pandemic – the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) has produced an average annual return of 8.9% and our economy has been in a period of expansion nearly 90% of the time.
Finally, with the S&P 500 up 1.63% since August 3, our election countdown calculator indicates Donald Trump will win reelection.