For the market, an unpleasant, but not unexpected, September and October
The article discusses the S&P 500's declines of 3.8% in September and 2.8% in October 2020, attributing the pullback to seasonal market weakness, election-year uncertainty, the COVID-19 pandemic, and fiscal support concerns, but notes that historically, November and December tend to be strong months for equities during election years, supported by economic recovery, favorable monetary policy, improved valuations, and the absence of new lockdowns despite rising COVID-19 cases.
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For the market, an unpleasant, but not unexpected, September and October
Wealth Management
November 2, 2020
November 2, 2020 09:13 AM
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We just closed the books on a tough two months for the market, with the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) off 3.8% in September and off 2.8% in October. If we consider a very strong July and August for equities, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the uncertainty surrounding fiscal support for the economy, the pullback isn’t surprising. Beyond that, we were in the seasonally weak period for the market (remember, “Sell in May and go away”) while history tells us September and October are rough months for stocks in an election year, which we ascribe to the uncertainty the upcoming vote causes on Wall Street. Now, it’s important to focus on what comes next for US equities. Well, we are in the seasonally strong period for the market, and equities have historically rallied nicely in November and December in election years. As the economy continues to recover, monetary policy is very supportive of risk assets, the recent pullback in the market has improved valuation, and despite a meaningful jump in US COVID-19 cases, another broad lockdown isn’t being considered. While any meaningful delay in calling the Presidential Election would likely weigh on equities, we think the market is biased higher into year-end. Finally, in a reversal of the past several weeks, the S&P 500 is now off -0.75% since August 3, indicating Joe Biden will win the Presidency.
The views expressed are those of Brinker Capital and are not intended as investment advice or recommendation. For informational purposes only. Brinker Capital Investments, LLC, a registered investment advisor.
Tagged: weekly wire, market perspectives, Tim Holland, S&P 500 Index, Presidential election, equities
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